Dec 27

Holiday shipping

The volume of shipments on the days before Christmas was so high Fed Ex and UPS could not make a significant percentage of  the deliveries promised before the holiday deadline.

Sellers in e-commerce you certainly want every sale they can make. But to keep customers coming back, realistic expectations needs to be established.  A holiday peak demand in the immediate days for the Christmas December 25th holiday can reasonably be expected. Organizations would be wise to not to say they delivery can be made by December 25, when there is a high chance that normal transit times can not be made.  A earlier cut off date for Christmas delivery  is good marketing. It always wise to create reasonable expectations for your customers.

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Dec 27

Limitations of Software

Morgan Stanley puts out an index of truckload volume. In early December 2013, for the shipping index was higher than it was ever been in that period of December. This occurred during a period of apparent lackluster retail growth. Morgan Stanley guessed the reasons for this increase were advanced buying for 2014, bad weather delaying shipments to early December, and a late Thanksgiving creating a compressed holiday shopping season.

Let me add one more guess to this list. Software which incorrectly forecast demand. Slow sales in September and October may have lead to not enough inventory in the pipeline to serve November and December surge demand. Remember the software is biased towards minimizing inventory costs.

There is a lot of literature on the value of software to plan your operations and forecast your demand. And in truth, no large operation of any volume can be remotely successful without this type of software.  Nevertheless software is made by humans to handle perceived situations. Not all changes can be foreseen in the creation process. I have not seen hardly any literature to help one make a decision when they should question the output. In many cases middle managers do so on an intuitive basis, but it be wise in using any software to recognize its limitations and be prepared to act when those situations occur.

 

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Dec 10

2014 Supply Chain Issues

In 2014, I do not expect Supply Chain and Logistics managers will spend lots of time worrying about shipping by drones, but here are some of the concerns they might have.

The 2013 changes in hours of services have minimal affect on local and short distance regional trucking whose drivers are home every night. Those trucking operations which are overnight, the hours of service regulations has caused driver wages to go down and carries to have is less production, in the neighborhood of 5%. These changes  will increase cost for those type of operations above normal inflationary increases and limit capacity. Intermodal rail have been increasing at a level of twice the economic growth. The raising long distance truck rates are a strong part of this.

Likely the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration will issue a requirement of electronic logs. I suspect there will be a large amount of negative public comments, but really electronic logs are a cheaper way to operate for all but the smallest of operations, so I do not see this as having much effect.

I am not convinced that consumers will pay more for same day delivery. But prompt service will be important. So last mile delivery will continue to be key selling factor and will be very important in warehouse location and the services they offer.

The ocean shipping market will continue to be influenced by the 2015 opening of the enlarged Panama Canal. Ports and transportation companies will prepare for these changes and shippers will consider how they impact services and costs. There will be press about other Central American companies creating competitors to the Panama Canal. They are not likely to succeed.  Panama’s government and infrastructure has shown it can handle large projects and the canal (and the associated rail infrastructure) well. The other countries do not have proven expertise in these areas.

The Keystone Pipeline project will likely be approved. I believe President Obama has been using this as a bargaining chip for negotiating with the Republicans on some issue.

Petroleum transport by rail will continue to rise. There will be pressure to improve rail car tank car safety. However really there is no other way to transport the product efficiently to where it is needed. The economics of fracking oil to create jobs and lower costs will be too important to block.

Supply Chain / Logistics Software products will begin to mature. Ease of implementation and use and cost considerations will have a higher priority with customers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Nov 15

Importance of people in warehousing

Earlier this week, I did a tour of the Mary Kay warehouse serving the Chicago and Midwest region.

The warehouse uses a pick to light process. There are lots of boxes with orders in them going down the line.  Lackadaisical workers could easily mess this up, miss a box or not put the correct products in.   However Mary Kay has a seasoned staff in the warehouse with most workers who are permanent employees there having more than 5 years experience.  Employees are rotated to various parts of the line which I think helps employees stay focus on what they are doing. Company culture is a strong support of their employees. It shows. My guess is that while there warehouse staff is probably more expensive than average with their longevity, but getting the orders out correctly is what makes this worthwhile economically.

There are limits to automation. Their sku’s are changing so picking equipment would not work as product shapes and sizes are constantly changing.   Sku’s are limited to about 1000 to keep the current process in shape.

I suspect that they will look at what Staples has done with various box sizes to improve transportation utilization. Right now, from what I can tell, boxes are limited to three sizes.

 

 

 

 

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Nov 12

50 years of supply chain history

Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) is 50 years old this year.  The Supply Chain Digest put out a short 5 minute video to list the changes in the field as well as the organization. It was shown last month at the CSCMP annual convention. You can see it here at the 3 minute 40 second mark of the weekly Supply Digest video for CSCMP.  Dan Gilmore made the video with Jim Stevens narrating the video.

http://bit.ly/HPY1tt

It is a testament to the speed of change on how much the field has changed.  In the western world not much changed in history from the Roman Empire and its vast network of roads to the Age of Enlightenment when sailing vessels revolutionized commerce. But with computers changing our ability to manipulate data, change has moved to the fast track. Data visibility of transportation, inventory and management costs have given us new muscle to improve the process. How will this process mature over the years? How has this affected your career?

Supply Chain personnel love to organize and plan, but how we do that has greatly changed and the changes are still being understood and improved.  Keeping up with your education in the field will be a key for growth.

 

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Oct 31

US-China Transportation Infrasturture

10/31/2013

Yesterday I attended a luncheon sponsored by The Chicago Council of Global Affairs on US-China Transportation Infrastructure.  There are annual meetings between China and US on transportation infrastructure and this year’s was held in Chicago during a global trade seminar hosted by the Chicago Council. Among the attendees were Gao Hongfeng, Vice Minister for the Ministry of Transport for the People’s Republic of China and John D Porcari, United States Deputy of Transportation.  My thoughts and comments on the event follow.

All the speakers and they had to do this, had their talking points, including Chicago’s Mayor Rahm Emanuel who spoke at the beginning of the event. There is something to be learned from these talking points and I will go over that shortly, but I suspect the real value of the conference was obscured by exclusively going over these promotional topics by the speakers. The speakers missed an opportunity to tell what is value of these conferences and why they should occur.  Exporting and importing is very detailed field with detailed problems. Both US and China had appropriately a number of bureaucrats from various departments at this meeting who needed to deal with the issues and bottlenecks of trade. The man sitting next to me who was an environmental consultant and spoke Mandarin Chinese said at to me, you need face time with Chinese on a regular basis if you want to have success dealing with them. The human interaction and the chance to work on these individual details is the real value in the conference.

Gao Hongfeng in his speech and response to questions talked about the many infrastructure accomplishments of the Chinese government. John Porcari did the same for the US government.  Implied but left unsaid are the challenges both countries face. In China, a continuing growing economy means transportation infrastructure has to be created. The US infrastructure is old, badly needs updating. The US federal government for the first time is trying to establish a national freight policy. See this link: http://bit.ly/1cpmOy3

One important feature of transportation planning is what I would call last mile planning.  The big national governments can plan for the longer distance connections. But city, province, state and regional bodies are needed to do a good job planning for the local parts of the infrastructure. This is true even in China, where central planning is part of the DNA of the government.  Because of the expense, central governments need to subsidize significantly this investment for the general public good even on the local level.

Gao Hongfeng spoke in Chinese. The young lady who translated his comments did an excellent job with a challenging technical vocabulary. The Chinese speaking person next to me confirmed my thoughts on the success of the translation. Gao Hongfeng is an interesting and impressive individual with a lot of challenges of his plate. His education is listed as being from the Inner Mongolia Hydro Electric Power College and distance learning of the Central Party School. It is a comment on our changing times that distance learning is now accepted as normal and proper.

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Oct 23

Importance of learning culture

Yesterday I met a representative of a tool and engineering company.  In talking to her, I was interested to learn that the company’s policy was that it would support all outside education of there regular employees regardless of a direct line benefit to the company. The idea behind that was that employees needed to have a culture of learning to serve their customers.

If you are in the supply chain and logistics field, change is constantly happening.  Not only are the markets for your firm constantly changing , suppliers are having issues, transportation options are slowing up, speeding up or going up in price. The best practices in the field are constantly changing.  Unless one is willing to learn, being able to change as your business environment changes is not going to happen.

For the individual, this is a challenge, because the day to day job pressures, usually means learning is on the off hours of the job. But if one makes learning an important career value it will happen.

 

 

 

 

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Oct 11

Omnichannel and Dominick’s

Two events yesterday drew my attention. I attended a program by the CSCMP Roundtable in Chicago at the Motorola Solutions Innovation Center where the topic was omnichannel order fulfillment. If you get a chance to visit the Innovation Center, take it, as it is quite worthwhile to see where technology is headed. Yesterday it was also announced that Safeway would close the Dominick’s grocery chain by early next year, which at one time was one of the big two grocery stores in the Chicagoland area.

To me, the Dominick’s failure spoke both of the importance of omnichannel and its limitations.

Ominchannel means there are many ways to reach a potential customer with such data to support it . From a supply chain point of view, multiple methods of purchase, be at the store, online, or some combination of two adds to its complexity.   Just one small example: one innovation discussed at the meeting yesterday was to have just a few floor samples for women’s clothes but have the customer request her size as she goes to the dressing room and it would be presented to her right there. This will affect how things are stored and shipped to the store.

To learn the value of its massive data, Office Depot hired mathematicians to crunch through the data. Learning what is there will affect how they organize the process in the future.

Dominick’s is like a lot of grocery stores had a saving card, called Fresh Values, which they can see who bought want and where. The information Dominick’s sent me through emails and the website rarely corresponded to anything I actually bought from them. If they they used that data well, would it encouraged others and myself to buy at Dominick’s?  This may have been a missed opportunity.

But all the data in the world, probably would not have made the Dominick’s chain profitable as it once was. Dominick’s was a middle market store, not the highest cost or the lowest cost, or highest quality or lowest quality. Walmart, Costco was one side, and Whole Foods was on the other.  To survive in that environment, to get the customer to come back, a company needs to reach that customer on an emotional level.   Only looking at the transactions with customer, which is all omnichannel can do, would not have been enough to save Dominick’s.   The store experience, the connection with the community which competitor Jewel does well, and employee responsiveness were crucial pieces of the puzzle not addressed well by Safeway,  the owner of Dominick’s.

 

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Sep 29

Changes in truck brokerage laws

Come October 1, 2013, there will be important changes when a shipper uses a broker. For reference see this DC Velocity article:

http://www.dcvelocity.com/articles/20130805-take-this-load-and-follow-the-rules/

Come October 1, carriers can not broker a load out a shipper has given to them. This is called double brokering and has been common. Interline shipments is still allowed.

When a shipper uses a broker, the bill of lading must list the actual carrier handling the freight. The broker or 3PL can be listed separately and notations that they are going to be paid.

Brokerage surety requirements will increase to $75,000 from $10,000. Some people believe this increase will knock out many smaller brokers. $10,000 is almost nothing in today’s dollars and I view the increase as appropriate.

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Sep 25

The uselessness of small data

For the last couple years, “big data” has been one of those next best thing buzz words of business. Its basic premise is now that we have oodles of data, lets figure out how to use to make the organization more effective.

Data can also be viewed though in a six sigma/lean format. The waste in data is a hindrance and a cost to effective management. So for fun, in this blog post we called that near useless data “small data”.  I am not writing about inaccurate data here although that is another waste of resources but rather about accurate or inaccurate data no longer needed.

For example, there was a large company on which had no way to eliminate its obsolete sku’s for its product file. Yes, it was physical possible but so many hoops and details needed to be done to eliminate the sku,  nobody bothered. There were the prime company objectives to be done that left little time to police the data.  There were products sitting in warehouses which were market obsolete, or had so few sales that it was not worthwhile to the organization. Time was spent looking at the data, inventory took up space, and resources for the firm was used for useless purposes.  Ultimately this problem was addressed by changing the entire accounting system in the organization.

All of us as individuals face this dilemma in determining who we thin out our email files.  Lots of data, much of it useless. Do we do it before the IT department forces out to weed out in a hurried basis?

The reality is that organizations and individuals are time stressed.  I advocate that organizations and its managers should set priorities for down or less stressful periods at least once on annual basis. Among those priorities should be review of its data to find the small data which takes up time and money. Removing the clutter, allows the organization and yourself to do more efficiently.

 

 

 

 

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