Apr 29

Truckload Capacity

An article in this week’s Journal of Commerce at: http://bit.ly/1kiFjYo, sites the raw statistics on truckload shortages. It quotes US Xpress Enterprises as saying it turned down 1,200 loads a day during the winter month and 600 loads a day in recent weeks. That is double last year’s level. Morgan Stanley puts out weekly graphs on truckload shipments comparing loads offered to accepted and that line is way over the median for calendar 2014.

This will continue until driver shortages and capacity are aligned. Wages will need to go up to attract more drivers. Rates will have to go up to attract more capacity. As a result, more and more long haul truck business will go on to the rail. Intermodal rates will go up but not so high as to make customers want to ship back to truck.

Here is what a shipper of freight can do to limit cost increases:

1) Pay your freight bills on time. Carriers will choose those firms that pay their bills timely.

2) Be carrier friendly by getting trucks in and out in a timely matter, as time cost money for the carrier.

3) Develop a business relationship with a carrier or third party your firm uses. Not only will advance planning allow truck capacity to be there when you need it, but planning may allow both parties to save cost through increase equipment utilization.

4) Consolidate shipments when you can. It is many times less costly to send a full truckload to a distant distribution site serving the customers near that distribution facility and use local carriers from there.  Local carriers are less capacity constrained than long haul truckers.

South Loop Logistics can help in this process if you need assistance.

 

 

 

Posted in Logistics, Management, Supply Chain, Sustainability, Transportation, Trucking | Tagged | Leave a comment
Apr 13

Changes shipping to or from Mexico.

There are big changes in the transportation and custom regulations going into and out of Mexico from the US. They are described in an article by Jim and Chris Giermanski Supply and Demand Chain Executive March 2014 magazine at:http://bit.ly/1jCM88f.

For years all shipments to and from Mexico had to use a Mexican Customs Broker. the new decree published on December 9, 2013 from the Federal Government of Mexico will change this.  In the past, imports to Mexico from the US, it had to go to Mexico Customs Broker site on the US site where it was cleared by the Mexican customs broker and shipped on their dray trucks to their facilities in Mexico and then given to Mexican trucker for final delivery. The new rules will allow imports to be cleared inland in Mexico by a competent authorized legal representative. Exporters from Mexico will also be able an authorized legal representative.

For larger shippers much more efficient supply chains in and out of Mexico both in cost and transit times will now be possible. My guess is smaller shippers will continue to use Mexican Custom Brokers at the border, but ever here, with the system less rigorously structured, there is likely to be cost savings.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

 

Posted in Export, Import, Logistics, Public Policy, Supply Chain, Transportation, Trucking | Leave a comment
Mar 24

Panama Canal Expansion

Last Thursday I attended a joint meeting of the Traffic Club of Chicago and CSCMP Chicago Roundtable on the subject of the Panama Canal expansion which will allow bigger ships to cross that country. It was a story of people fearlessly taking big gambles, though ones which have a high chance of paying off.  For the about 80 people who attended this event, it really was a challenge to them also. How do you to take advantage of this major change in infrastructure to the benefit of their organizations?

Panama has chosen, with approval of their people in referendum, to expand the canal so ships roughly double the current size can traverse it. It is mammoth project, multi-year, extremely complex, and difficult to manage. The expansion project is likely to be completed in late 2015 or early 2016. When the US turned over the Canal to Panama, they made a choice, an indeed a gamble, that they would not to just sit on the asset, but update so it could bring in more of the world’s ships, which have continued to increase in size. It would keep the Canal relevant to its business environment. Many so called leaders would have chosen to just milk the asset they got and watch it diminish over time.

But Panama did not stop there. Speaker Kevin Keller of HDR Engineering described the land planning initiatives by Panama to take advantage of the new ships and their new business. Their goal is to be the central hub market for of all of Latin America. It is a gamble, taking advantage of its location and its business initiatives, and again is likely to be successful.

Is it possible in America in 2014 to be bold and daring in America, be willing to meet the challenges of the future? We were fortunate to hear from two people at the meeting who are taking that gamble, one in the public sector, one in the private sector. They are Bill Johnson, Port Director Port Miami and James Hertwig, President and CEO of the Florida East Coast Railway. These two people took a lead role in this major project described below.

The Port of Miami has raised nearly $2 billion dollars in capital funds funded in part by the Port, the State of Florida, Dade County, and among its private partners the Florida East Coast Railway.  There was extremely limited federal funding for this, so alternate funding sources were needed.  Some of this money was used to dredge the harbor to 50 feet to accommodate the ships which will soon be able to transverse the Canal.   Miami is the closest US port to Panama and is also a Latin America business hub. Of course vessels this size are also coming from Europe and  Asia and Miami will be one of the few East Coast ports which will be able to handle these ships. A tunnel opening soon will directly connect the port with the interstate highway system taking this traffic off local downtown roads.  The Florida East Coast Railway has reconnected its rail directly with the port, to significantly improve intermodal access and provide it with new business.

Businesses will find with new Canal improved connections and cost to South America and as well as alternative routes to the Far East including China. Will they take advantage of this?

In all these “gambling” stories it took exceptional leadership to get people to work together and effectively manage these projects. There are lessons here for all of us to learn.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
Mar 20

Big data and management

I had an opportunity to hear Krish Krishnan Monday evening March 20, 2014 speak on his subject Big Data to the Chicago area Logistics, Operations and Supply Chain Professionals (LOSC). He has worked with many leading companies.  If you get the chance to hear do so.

He defines Big Data as data problems too complex for basic Oracle and Microsoft software. As a way to make big data a little less complex to understand, he asked us to think about Google’s index mathematical model as way of seeing how bid data number crunching works.  A key issue is somehow arranging disparate data.

When there is a big data need, management must not punt on this process. Clarity on what the issue is the key to avoiding spending big bucks on wasted efforts. Your organization’s IT department cannot make those type of decisions for management.  Management must determine what is important to find out and why.  The if skills are needed to carry out the mechanics of the process, talent can be found at a price. It is management’s decision if the cost is worthwhile.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
Mar 14

Electronic Logs

Within the next few days. the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration will put out a proposal for electronic logs for all heavy duty trucks and buses.  http://bit.ly/1qDvnxA

Yes, it will cost money to put these devices in tractors, however  electronic logs will be not only useful for enforcing safety regulations, but also useful for managing the fleet with important data information on drivers performance. There will be significant improvement both in performance and management cost in replacing manual review of logs with electronic review.

The American Trucking Association is supporting the concept of electronic logs, I am sure primarily because the benefits sited above.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
Feb 20

Arthimetic in the Supply Chain

One of the study themes of my blog is that numbers are a tool that needs to used wisely. Let me use a non-logistics / supply chain example to illustrate this.

This week there was in the Chicago Tribune an article on the opening of a new Mariano’s grocery store in the Chicago area;  http://bit.ly/1d6KZjS. This was former Dominick’s store as Dominick’s chain was closed by Safeway. Dominick’s closed most of its stores in December 2013 while a very few closed in January this year.

Some background first; for generations Dominick’s was one of the major grocery chains in the Chicago area. The independent chain was sold to Safeway in 1995. Safeway cut labor and raised prices. Lower costs and higher revenues the arithmetic said it should mean greater profits. It didn’t. Some years later after the sale, Mr. Mariano who use to run Dominick’s before it was sold, became President of Roundy’s and decided Dominick’s was vulnerable. It was very vulnerable.

When Dominick’s closed its 72 stores it laid off more than 6000 people. Mariano’s bought 11 stores and is hiring 3000 people. Dominick’s lost significant dollars and Roundy’s, the chain owing Mariano’s is profitable. Perhaps Dominick’s was understaffed to save money? Here was a case were a smaller staff cost less, but was harmful to profitability.  Mariano’s had a market focus that better customer service using more associates not only attracted customers to the store but also encourages to buy higher margin items. Mariano’s basic grocery line is competitive to the market, thus lower than Dominick’s prices were. It specialty products, which are the first items you see when you go into the store, gives the store the higher profits.

The lesson for the supply chain is this. The purpose of the supply chain is not to make good numbers. The numbers will measure how efficient a particular process is doing, but unless it helps the business be successful, focusing on those numbers will harm the business not help it. A classic logistic example: a cheap carrier comes into the market. The carrier takes the business away from the high service incumbent. The price is lower, but the customer is not timely served and many deliveries are late. The business is likely to be loss and management’s valuable time is used to resolve the problem, when it should have been focused on making the process better. Metrics needed to be reviewed to see if the focus is on the numbers or helping the business be successful.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
Jan 31

What Atlanta can teach the Supply Chain

Early this week Atlanta came to a complete halt. What can this event teach a person in supply chain and logistics? In truth, most supply chain / logistics people must be secretly smiling themselves because they have experienced minor versions of this themselves when demand spiked beyond all dreams and plans. There is a good description of what happening during a snow storm in Atlanta which can be found here: http://cnn.it/1fDT8ib

Melissa Fay Green’s article describes the moment everyone in Atlanta saw a snowflake about 1:30 PM Tuesday January 28, 2014, they all decided to jump in the cars at once to beat the storm going home. They did not succeed.  This for just about 3 inches of snow. It is safe to assume that people in the Atlanta area had previously had experience when snow storms and knew the government infrastructure could not cope the problem. This is why they started home then.

Every once a while in a supply chain /logistics professionals career, an unexpected spike demand will occur.  In the Atlanta case, millions of individual decisions led to the capacity of the roads to become a quagmire. In the professional’s case, there is a major advantage, the power to centralize the decision processes.  This is the most important first step in dealing with a sharp pike in demand.

With the ability to plan, comes the ability to process review. What is your capacity to deliver now?  Importantly what are the bottlenecks that limit that demand. Can they be changed to have additional capacity? Once that is understood, the second step then will occur as your organization prioritizes your customers and your process, which is the second step.

Communication with all stakeholders is the important third step.  This is not easy as it sounds. Finding the way to reach stakeholders  which includes the end customers is not always easy. In the Atlanta case, cell phone were missing or out of power, yet some communication was done with social media. Be prepared to be innovative and resourceful.  A strong reaction to that communication has to be anticipated as some customer and production process will be adversely affected.

Lastly after it is over, a review of what was learned is very important. Undoubtedly in retrospect there will be process improvements, costs which could handled better, planning processes which could be more focused. I suspect in Atlanta the review will be very difficult, because anger, political aspirations, budget constraints, and a bias against government.  Your organization will need to handle the review process in a constructive way, because negatives enter enterprise planning also.

In review, the four steps are: 1) Centralize the planning, 2) Prioritize your process and your end user customers, 3) Communicate with the stake holders, and 4) Review the process and events when it is over.

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Infrastructure, Inventory planning, Management, Public Policy, Supply Chain, Transportation | Tagged | Leave a comment
Jan 24

Planning for New Products

Recently there was an interview with Allyson Hatfield with the Supply Chain Brain, which can be found here: http://bit.ly/1eY7UQ0

Allyson Hatfield is responsible for the demand planning for new products at Campbell Soup. Almost all the old line food companies have found that must innovate to survive and grow. That has meant that being able to plan how to handle new products is a key skill.  She brings something very important to job beyond her business skills, that is a joy of discovery, because when something is new one has to be assertive in finding new information.

To plan for a new product,  she starts looking at what products in similar categories are doing in the marketplace.  But she also realizes she needs to physically see the marketplace, going to stores to see how similar products are promoted and sold. She brings a knowledge of the retail customers into her demand planning, so she can plan how they are likely to respond to the new product.

Any new entrepreneur has similar issues.  But with knowledge of similar products and knowledge of the customers, intelligent guesses can be made on business levels. The chance to be successful will increase if you can know what to make and how much.

 

 

 

Posted in Inventory planning, Logistics, Supply Chain | Tagged | Leave a comment
Jan 15

Transportation as a commodity

Here is an interesting video on supply chain brain about trends in transportation in a study by the University of Tennessee and Georgia Southern: http://bit.ly/1aoFnAv. It is interview of Mary Holcomb of the University of Tennessee by the magazine Supply Chain Brain.

It starts off with a finding that many organizations are joining their procurement (purchasing) departments and transportation into one entity in the organization. It has the effect of commoditizing transportation as just another commodity the firm buys.

The onus is on the transportation staff to point out the importance of value added services of a carrier otherwise it will strictly be on price and meeting service standards. In some cases that may all that is needed. But for many organizations, the carrier’s transportation knowledge of the customer is key selling point. Another key is a commitment to service the account even when there is tight capacity. The last few minutes of the interview, Dr Holcomb discusses these type of issues.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Logistics, Management, Supply Chain, Sustainability, Transportation, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment
Jan 03

No demand information

I watched a video of Jarrod Goenzel, Director MIT Humanitarian Response Lab. The link is here: http://bit.ly/1bDLro0.  Early on in the video, Jarrod Goenzel talks about one of the major supply chain / logistics problems in humanitarian logistics being that there is no demand information, not only the amount to be shipped but even what to ship.

When you know demand you can formulate a plan for the volume of goods being moved on an efficient basis. In a humanitarian crisis there may be no direct method of getting demand.

In business, there are times demand is not known, such as situations where there is new business or a new product. Occasionally item with a small demand becomes a fad item and demand sky rockets.

In the humanitarian crisis, demand can be determined from past experience and by viewing social media messages from the area of demand. Procedures can be put place to estimate demand to start the planning and execution process.

In business, demand for new products may be estimated using market surveys or even flat out guesses. Once shipments begin, the demand forecast will need to be revised from actual sales but possibly also information such as social media.

The key to success, success being defined as meeting customer expectations in an efficient operation, is using revised demand forecasts to change your supply chain / logistics plan.

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Inventory planning, Management, Supply Chain, Transportation | Tagged | Leave a comment